With a sizable favorability rating, survey reveals voters expect Clark to win the primary
BOSTON, Oct. 11, 2013 /PRNewswire/ — State Senator Katherine Clark is poised to be the Democrat nominee for U.S. Congress after Tuesday's primary election, according to a new Emerson College Polling Society (ECPS) survey of likely Democratic primary voters. Clark is up 10 points over her Democrat rivals with 29% of the vote; State Senator Will Brownsberger has 19% followed by Carl Sciortino (16%), Karen Spilka (15%), and Peter Koutoujian (14%).
When asked who they expect to win the primary, regardless of who they personally support, 27% of respondents named Clark, 17% chose Koutoujian, and 14% went for Spilka.
Voter attitudes remain positive for the top candidates. Clark enjoys a 63% favorability rating, compared to a 17% unfavorable rating. Brownsberger polled 51% favorable to 15% unfavorable, Sciortino came in at 50% favorable and 16% unfavorable, Koutoujian was 48% favorable and 20% unfavorable, and Spilka has a 45% favorable and 20% unfavorable rating among those polled in the district.
Sciortino, who previously was a lesser known candidates at 5% of the vote in a poll three weeks ago, is now at 16%, providing possible evidence that his humorous TV advertisement, with over 400,000 YouTube hits, featuring his "Tea Party" father has resulted in real momentum for his campaign. The upbeat ad features the liberal Sciortino bantering with his father, who is a member of the Tea Party, over the candidate's policy positions.
Martin Long (7% and 25%) and Paul Maisano (12% and 26%) trailed far behind the other candidates on favorability/unfavorability measures and name recognition. Forty percent of respondents had never heard of Long; 36% had not heard of Maisano.
Geographically, Clark, Brownsberger and Spilka all have solid support on their home turf. Clark, whose state senate seat encompasses the northern third of the district, enjoys 48% support in that area. Brownsberger strength is in the Suffolk and Middlesex counties, the middle part of the district, gaining 43% of that constituency, with Clark at 27%. Brownsberger appears to be pulling support away from Koutoujian, an Armenia-American who was expected to do well with the sizable Armenian population in Belmont and Watertown, but who is only polling at 9% in this area. Spilka, based in Ashland, garners 43% support in the southern part of the district. However, her support is very thin in the middle and northern areas (3% and 2%, respectively).
All the candidates except Spilka enjoy an even level of support among men and women; yet, Spilka has 6% more support from women than men (18% to 12%).
Caller ID: Data was collected between October 2-8, 2013, using an automated data collection system. The survey sample consisted of 471 likely Democrat primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.5% with a 95% confidence level. The full survey and results are available at the group's website: http://www.emersoncollegepollingsociety.com/
About Emerson College Polling Society
Emerson College Polling Society is a student organization at Emerson College dedicated to formulating, administering, and analyzing public opinion polls. The results and analysis of this release are the sole views of Emerson College Polling Society and do not reflect the views of Emerson College as a whole.
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